Garry Jacobs

President & CEO, World Academy of Art & Science

The original HS4A campaign was developed in partnership with the UN Trust Fund for Human Security. This campaign is solely an initiative of The World Academy of Art and Science (WAAS) and the information and views presented on this site do not represent the views of the United Nations or its Member States.

082525 2.22

Abstract

The world today is in the grip of unprecedented turbulence. What is often described as a

polycrisis—a convergence of ecological, economic, political, technological, and cultural

disruptions—is not merely a sequence of independent events, but the outcome of deeper

structural and psychological forces shaping the future of human civilization. These forces are

fundamentally behavioral. The actions and inactions of individuals, organizations, and

institutions either accelerate transition toward a more cooperative and sustainable order or

obstruct it by clinging to outdated habits and paradigms.

To understand turbulence, therefore, requires that we examine behavior across these three

levels. Individuals embody both the anxieties of change and the aspirations of progress.

Organizations amplify human behavior by institutionalizing incentives, priorities, and

cultures that either reinforce competition or foster cooperation. Institutions codify

behaviors over time, embedding them in laws, governance structures, and economic models that shape collective action. When behaviors at these three levels fail to adapt to the rapid pace of global change, turbulence emerges. When they align with values of sustainability, justice, and human security, conscious social evolution becomes possible.

This article builds on the findings of the World Academy of Art and Science (WAAS) project on sources and solutions for global turbulence to analyze how behavioral change at the level of individuals, organizations, and institutions can transform turbulence into transition. It argues that behavioral change is not a marginal concern but the decisive factor that will determine whether humanity regresses into fragmentation or advances toward a cooperative and humane global society. Our research raises profound questions regarding how humanity can transform this haphazard and apparently leaderless process of subconscious change into a conscious process of global social transformation.

Turbulence as a Behavioral Phenomenon

The turbulence spreading the world in recent years is a product of increasing levels of

uncertainty, anxiety, insecurity and instability. It is expressing on the surface of society in terms of a fragmentation and polarization of viewpoints and public opinion, rising levels of concern about the future, conflict and violence.

The world today has greater knowledge and technological capabilities, institutional capacity, and financial resources than at any previous time in history. Recent advances in AI will make possible unprecedented advances in scientific research and medical treatment. Yet at the same time, uncertainty about the impact of AI and robotics on employment opportunities is undermining confidence both among working age adults and youth who are wondering what types of jobs will be available by the time they enter the workforce. The turbulence is an expression of this friction generated by divergences between those who look forward with confidence and enthusiasm to a better world while others respond with increasing concern regarding the potential threats which future changes may pose to life as they know it.

One response to the turbulence has been a return to failed ideas of past generations. Many of the ideas that have guided progress since the end of the Cold War are now being challenged and rejected. We observe a retreat from democracy to autocracy, from multilateralism to national domination of the most powerful, from universal human rights to domination by a cultural majority, from openminded tolerance to suspicion and condemnation of minorities and migrants, from trust in science and education to a rejection of evidence-based conclusions with inconvenient implications. At a time when we are confronted by unprecedented challenges to the future survival of humanity which can only be addressed by global cooperation, there has been a retreat to national self-interest and unilateral action and a rejection of the authority of multilateral institutions and global rule of law.

The most visible expressions of turbulence are crises: financial instability, geopolitical

conflict, pandemics, climate emergencies, and the disruptive force of Artificial Intelligence.

But beneath these symptoms lie patterns of human behavior that magnify insecurity and instability. Financial crises are fuelled not only by faulty regulation but also by speculative behaviors incentivized by short-term profit motives. Climate change is driven not simply by fossil-fuel technologies but by consumption habits, cultural values, and aspirations that glorify limitless growth. Political instability reflects not only institutional weakness but also fear, anger, and mistrust among citizens whose identities and expectations are unsettled by rapid change and by the application of social power to distort political outcomes.

The WAAS study of global turbulence stresses that these crises stem from a mismatch

between the accelerating pace of social evolution and the slower pace of intellectual,

institutional, cultural, and psychological adaptation. This mismatch is behavioral at its core.

Societies struggle to adapt when individuals resist change, organizations perpetuate

outdated practices, and institutions defend entrenched paradigms and vested interests.

Turbulence thus arises not merely from the objective scale of challenges but from the

subjective inability and unwillingness of human systems to align behavior with emerging realities.

At the same time, turbulence also contains within it the seeds of transition. Crises expose the limitations of old patterns and create opportunities for new behaviors to emerge.

Whether turbulence degenerates into regression or catalyzes progress depends on the

capacity for behavioral change at multiple levels of human action. This capacity is a function of the quality of leadership, social aspirations, preparedness and awakening, cultural attitudes and values.

Individual Drivers of Behavioral Change

Turbulence is felt most directly in the lives of individuals, who experience it as fear,

insecurity, and uncertainty about the future. The rapid pace of technological change has destabilized the world of work, demanding constant reskilling and adaptability. Traditional education systems, still focused on rote knowledge transfer, leave individuals unprepared for the fluid demands of the 21 st Century. Many people respond to this uncertainty by clinging to familiar identities, resisting cultural change, or retreating into nationalism.

Resistance to change, in this sense, is as much a psychological defence as a rational strategy.

Behavioral science reveals that human beings are not purely rational actors. They are

shaped by social norms, emotional cues, and perceptions of trust. The decline of faith in democratic institutions illustrates this point. When citizens perceive governments as corrupt or unresponsive, they shift their allegiance toward populist leaders who offer the illusion of certainty. Similarly, climate action often falters when individuals believe their sacrifices will make little difference unless others act as well. In both cases, individual behavior is driven less by objective facts than by subjective perceptions of fairness, trust, and meaning.

Yet individuals also drive social transition when their values align with collective goals. Social movements for civil rights, women’s empowerment, and climate justice demonstrate how shifts in individual attitudes can accumulate into powerful cultural transformations. The global youth movement for climate action is a clear example of how personal concern translates into collective pressure for systemic change. In this sense, individuals are both the weakest link and the strongest force in the chain of social evolution.

The challenge of conscious evolution lies in creating narratives and incentives that align personal motivation with global objectives such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the WAAS Human Security for All (HS4A) campaign.

This requires more than information. It demands cultural narratives that make cooperation meaningful, education systems that foster critical thinking and empathy, and community structures that reinforce

trust and solidarity.

From Policy to People: Why Behavior Matters

Traditional policy and institutional reforms are indispensable, but insufficient. They too often ignore the decisive role of human behavior. Collective psychology—our values, motivations, and aspirations—shapes whether policies succeed or fail. Even the most sophisticated international agreements falter if they do not resonate with the lived experiences and behavioral patterns of people.

In spite of overwhelming scientific evidence and almost daily news reports confirming the existential risks posed by climate change, the vast majority of world population – both educated and uneducated – have never come to understand the personal threat it poses to them. The SDGs illustrate this vividly. They represent humanity’s most ambitious agenda for peace and prosperity, yet progress has slowed because citizens have not fully embraced and been fully engaged in the process. The language of the SDGs is intelligible to the scientists and policymakers, but not to the general public.

When I asked participants at a European conference of public health officials what the

medical profession is doing to stop climate, my question was met with silence. I responded by citing the findings of WHO reports concluding that global warming represents the single greatest threat in the world to human health. Then I reminded them that the medical profession is the most respected occupational group in the world. Physicians have a closer personal relationship to the general public than those of any other profession. They are the most qualified profession to reach out to the general public asking them to take climate change seriously.

This is why WAAS has been collaborating with the United Nations and partner organizations to convert the macro-level statistical language of the SDGs into the person-centered, bottom-up messaging of Human Security for All. Human security transforms the abstract quantitative language of the SDGs into something that every human being can understand – food security, health security, economic security, human rights, community and personal safety, environmental security and even security against technological threats.

Our experience confirms that people in every field can understand this messaging –

interfaith religious groups, parliamentarians, civil society leaders, educators, and even

business leaders. When we approached the Consumer Technology Association (CTA), which represents the largest technology companies in the world, we were presently surprised at how readily they understood the relevant this messaging is for their own member companies. In response they adopted the theme of human security for all in the 50 th Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas in January 2023 and projected the messaging of human security before 130,000 business and technology leaders and 5000 journalists from all over the world.

They were so convinced by the message and so impressed by the

response of their members, that they invited us back to continue the campaign in 2024 and 2025. CTA also introduced a new category of awards for companies whose products made a positive contribution to promoting human security. Behavioral change is possible when we translate abstract concepts and impersonal data into personalized messaging relevant to the individual.

We found the same thing among a large international audience of university educators in all major academic disciplines – business, finance, technology, the natural and social sciences, art, humanities and professional courses. We asked educators from each discipline what the education they provide is doing to inform and address their students regarding the global concerns of humanity. After all, if it isn’t the business of educators to help youth and leaders understand what is happening in and to the world, whose is it ?

Not just the environmentalist’s and meteorologist’s, its every educator’s responsibility. To demonstrate it, we have introduced a program for English language education in Indian schools and use the medium of language training to expose the students to vital information on human security issues relevant to their own personal lives and those of the families and communities they live in.

Behavioral science provides practical tools for bridging this gap. It reveals how people make decisions, why they resist change, and how social norms can be shifted at scale. It can transform abstract global goals into daily practices that individuals and institutions adopt instinctively.

Organizational Drivers of Behavioral Change

If individuals are the building blocks of society, organizations are its amplifiers. They channel human energies into collective action and magnify their impact through structures, incentives, and cultures. Yet organizations often perpetuate turbulence by institutionalizing outdated behaviors.

Corporations, for instance, have been engines of innovation and prosperity, yet their

adherence to shareholder-value models has entrenched short-term profit imperatives that fuel inequality and environmental degradation. Media organizations, designed to inform and connect, frequently amplify misinformation and polarization when their business models reward sensationalism rather than truth. Universities, entrusted with preparing future generations, too often remain locked in siloed disciplines that fail to equip students to address the transdisciplinary challenges of sustainability, security, and governance.

Organizational inertia is powerful because it is systemic. Once a culture of competition, secrecy, or profit maximization is embedded in structures and incentives, it becomes self-reinforcing. Employees internalize organizational norms, customers adapt their expectations, and external regulations are shaped by organizational lobbying. These feedback loops make organizations formidable obstacles to behavioral transition.

Yet organizations also hold transformative potential. Corporations that reorient toward sustainability demonstrate how changing organizational incentives can reshape consumer and investor behavior. Educational institutions experimenting with transdisciplinary curricula and value-based learning show how organizations can prepare citizens for cooperative global citizenship. Civil society organizations create spaces for collaboration that transcend national boundaries, demonstrating that organizational design can foster solidarity rather than rivalry.

The behavior of organizations thus constitutes a pivotal driver of turbulence or transition. If organizations continue to amplify competitive and extractive behaviors, turbulence will deepen. If they reconfigure their priorities to align with human security and sustainability, they can become incubators of conscious social evolution.

Institutional Drivers of Behavioral Change

Institutions represent the most enduring level of human behavior. They are the codified frameworks—laws, governance structures, economic systems—that embody collective habits and norms over time. Precisely because of their durability, institutions are often slow to adapt. When the world changes rapidly, this lag becomes a source of turbulence.

The doctrine of sovereignty illustrates this problem. Originally designed to protect states from external domination, sovereignty today is wielded as a weapon of unilateral self- interest, obstructing cooperation on climate, finance, and security. The paradigm of competitive national security, born of centuries of militarized rivalry, continues to fuel arms races, even when cooperative security would be safer and less costly. Economic institutions that measure growth by GDP incentivize resource extraction and inequality, while neglecting

human well-being and ecological survival.

Institutional inertia is reinforced by the behaviors of leaders who derive legitimacy from preserving familiar paradigms. Multilateral organizations falter when member states prioritize narrow interests over collective goods. The slow progress of the SDGs reflects not only resource constraints but also an institutional culture of incrementalism that avoids challenging entrenched power.

Yet history also shows that institutions can evolve to foster new behaviors. The European Union transformed centuries of rivalry into a framework of cooperation. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights reshaped expectations about justice and dignity worldwide. Agenda 2030, despite faltering progress, remains an unprecedented attempt to articulate a shared vision of global development. These examples demonstrate that institutional behavioral change, though slow, can redefine the trajectory of civilization when aligned with universal values.

Social Transition and Non-Transition

Social evolution rarely proceeds in a straight line. History is filled with advances followed by

retreats. The revolutions for liberty and equality in the 18 th Century were followed by

periods of reaction and repression. The end of the Cold War brought hopes for a

cooperative world order, yet within decades we witnessed renewed nationalism,

geopolitical rivalry, and a retreat from multilateralism. Such reversals illustrate what may be called non-transition: moments when behavioral inertia outweighs forward momentum. Non-transition is not failure but friction. It arises because different layers of society adapt at different speeds. Youth may embrace global identities while older generations cling to tradition. Elites may profit from globalization while working classes feel displaced. Such divergences create behavioral fault lines that manifest as turbulence. The task of conscious evolution is to bridge these divides by aligning behavior across individuals, organizations, and institutions. This means addressing fears that fuel regression, building trust that sustains cooperation, and creating incentives that reward forward movement. Social transition becomes possible when behaviors at all three levels reinforce each other rather than pulling in opposite directions.

Toward Conscious Social Evolution

The turbulence of our time is not merely a crisis but a transition point. It reveals the

inadequacy of unconscious, fragmented, and competitive behavior and the necessity of conscious, coordinated, and cooperative evolution. The future will depend on our capacity to realign behavior across individuals, organizations, and institutions.

Individuals must internalize values of sustainability, empathy, and global solidarity.

Organizations must embed these values into their cultures, incentives, and priorities.

Institutions must codify them into governance structures and economic systems that

promote cooperation and justice. This alignment is the essence of conscious social

evolution.

The International Panel on Behavior Change has a unique role to play in this transformation.

By analyzing behavioral drivers and designing strategies to influence them, it provides practical tools to complement systemic reforms. Its work aligns closely with the WAAS agenda of human security and the conscious evolution of society. Together, initiatives such as these can translate turbulence into transition by ensuring that the deepest drivers of behavior are mobilized in service of universal values.

Conclusion

Global turbulence is the outcome of behaviors shaped by inertia, uncertainty, fear,

insecurity, and outdated paradigms at every level of human action. Addressing it requires more than institutional reforms or technological solutions. It demands a reorientation of behavior at the level of individuals, organizations, and institutions toward values of sustainability, justice, and human security.

History shows that turbulence can lead either to regression or to progress. The outcome depends on our capacity for conscious evolution. Perhaps for the first time in history, the challenge is to consciously direct social evolution at the global level. That will require a knowledge of the process that is yet to be codified, a quality of leadership with a profound insight into the global social process combined with the capacity to communicate that vision to the general public, and institutions identified with the aspiration of humanity and the commitment to dedicate themselves to its realization.

By integrating behavioral science into the broader vision of social transformation, humanity can harness the energy of turbulence as a catalyst for transition.

The choice before us is clear : to remain trapped in the inertia of non-transition or to consciously guide behavior toward a cooperative and humane future.

The decisive factor will be our willingness to embrace behavioral change not as an afterthought but as the central driver of human destiny.